Morning BriefingThe US Treasury Yields have risen sharply after strong jobs data release on Friday increased the hopes for a rate hike. The US NFP rose by 172K (Market Expectation: 95K) and the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.3% The rise is getting support from oil price rise in the early trades today. A break above the immediate resistance can boost the momentum and take the yields higher. The chances of the fall indicated last week have been negated. The German yields are struggling to get a strong follow-through rise. That keeps them vulnerable to fall from here. We will have to wait and see. The 10Yr GoI has dipped further. It can fall more in line with our expectation before reversing higher. GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
Our May '26 Dollar Rupee Monthly Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.
WHAT'S NEW?
May'26 EURUSD Report
In our April 2026 report (13-Apr-26, EURUSD 1.1686), we expected the Euro to rise to 1.1950 by May-26 while retaining our long-term bearishness towards 1.10 by Aug’26. The main reasons were good chances of a rise in the Dollar Index and crude prices. The markets expect the ECB to move ... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
Jan'26 USDJPY Report
In our 10-Dec-25 report (USDJPY 156.70), we expected the USDJPY to trade within 154-158 region till Jan’26 before eventually rising in the long run. In line with our view, the pair limited the downside to ... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
June'26 GOI Report
In our 11-Apr-26 report (10Yr GOI 7.03%) we had retained our bullish view on Brent towards $134 by Sep-26, while allowing for a near term dip to $95 on hopes of a US-Iran resolution. Brent fell to $89.93, lower than... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
June'26 Crude Oil Report
In our May 2026 report (4-May-26, Brent @ $110.75), we expected Brent to test $90.50 by Jul-26, followed by a
rise to $145.13 by Sep-26 and $161.93 by Dec-26. Sustained trade below $100 was expected to be seen only on a credible resolution of the US-Iran war, which looked unlikely. ... Read More
WHAT'S NEW?
June '26 US Treasury Report
In our last report (29-Apr-26, UST10Yr 4.35%), we had said that the FED was likely to leave rates unchanged, which it did. We had also said that “once Kevin Warsh comes in, the FED is more likely to cut, responding to .... Read More
