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Research:
USD-JPY Amplitudes

EUR-USD      USD-CHF                      26th April, 2002

The study below tabulates the Probabilities of Dollar-Japanese Yen
moving X number of Yen over 3 different time frames. The study
can help Traders work ou the Time-frame over which they would
like to trade
USD-JPY Amplitude Probability Distrn.
Amplitude in Yen Daily 3-Day Weekly
0.0-0.5 5.56% 0.00% 0.00%
0.5-1.0 39.35% 26.76% 0.84%
1.0-1.5 29.12% 28.87% 13.65%
1.5-2.0 13.55% 21.48% 15.32%
2.0-2.5 6.63% 9.86% 18.94%
2.5-3.0 2.70% 2.11% 15.60%
3.0-3.5 1.01% 7.04% 10.31%
3.5-4.0 0.84% 2.11% 7.24%
4.0-4.5 0.56% 0.35% 3.34%
4.5-5.0 0.22% 0.35% 5.01%
5.0-5.5 0.06% 0.70% 4.18%
5.5-6.0 0.17% 0.00% 1.67%
6.0-6.5 0.00% 0.35% 0.84%
6.5-7.0 0.00% 0.00% 0.56%
7.0-7.5 0.00% 0.00% 0.56%
7.5-8.0 0.11% 0.00% 0.56%
8.0-8.5 0.06% 0.00% 1.11%
Avg Amplitude 1.26 2.1 2.94
Daily 68.47% chance of 0.5-1.5 Yen move
3 Days 77.11% chance of 0.5-2.0 Yen move
5 Day/ Week 49.86% chance of 1.5-3.0 Yen move
Additionally, over a 3-day period there's
7.04% chance of a 3.0-3.5 Yen move. And over a 5-day
period there's a 16.43% chance of a
3.5-5.5 Yen move
A 3 day time frame might be best for trading USDJPY
Occasionally, some very large moves can take place.
Notes:
Amplitude is measured as the difference between the
High and Low during a given time period (1-3-5 days)
The above study has been conducted on 3-year data.
For similar studies on other currencies please click
on the links below:
EUR-USD
USD-CHF
 
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