-Reaserch Topics -12m $-CHF Forecast -Dow-Dollar Examined	Research: USD-JPY Amplitudes
EUR-USD      USD-CHF                      26th April, 2002

The study below tabulates the Probabilities of Dollar-Japanese Yen
moving X number of Yen over 3 different time frames. The study
can help Traders work ou the Time-frame over which they would
like to trade
USD-JPY Amplitude Probability Distrn.
Amplitude in Yen	Daily	3-Day	Weekly
0.0-0.5	5.56%	0.00%	0.00%
0.5-1.0	39.35%	26.76%	0.84%
1.0-1.5	29.12%	28.87%	13.65%
1.5-2.0	13.55%	21.48%	15.32%
2.0-2.5	6.63%	9.86%	18.94%
2.5-3.0	2.70%	2.11%	15.60%
3.0-3.5	1.01%	7.04%	10.31%
3.5-4.0	0.84%	2.11%	7.24%
4.0-4.5	0.56%	0.35%	3.34%
4.5-5.0	0.22%	0.35%	5.01%
5.0-5.5	0.06%	0.70%	4.18%
5.5-6.0	0.17%	0.00%	1.67%
6.0-6.5	0.00%	0.35%	0.84%
6.5-7.0	0.00%	0.00%	0.56%
7.0-7.5	0.00%	0.00%	0.56%
7.5-8.0	0.11%	0.00%	0.56%
8.0-8.5	0.06%	0.00%	1.11%
Avg Amplitude	1.26	2.1	2.94
Daily	68.47% chance of 0.5-1.5 Yen move
3 Days	77.11% chance of 0.5-2.0 Yen move
5 Day/ Week	49.86% chance of 1.5-3.0 Yen move
Additionally, over a 3-day period there's
7.04% chance of a 3.0-3.5 Yen move. And over a 5-day
period there's a 16.43% chance of a
3.5-5.5 Yen move
A 3 day time frame might be best for trading USDJPY
Occasionally, some very large moves can take place.
Notes:
Amplitude is measured as the difference between the
High and Low during a given time period (1-3-5 days)
The above study has been conducted on 3-year data.
For similar studies on other currencies please click
on the links below:
EUR-USD
USD-CHF

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