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07-Aug-2008
0908 IST or 0338 GMT or 2338 EST

GOOD MORNING!

EQUITIES
The Tech-heavy Nasdaq rose over a percent while the Dow gained a third of a percent. This rally could be partially attributed to Crude, which continues dipped to 117.11 overnight.

The well being of Freddie Mac and sister company Fannie Mae is a big concern on Wall Street as the government-chartered companies hold or back nearly half of all U.S. mortgage debt. The companies have lost billions of dollars due to failed loans over the past year; the federal government has pledged to help both companies with larger lines of credit or stock purchases if necessary. The losses reported for the quarter was almost thrice of the expectation by Freddie Mac.

To see the charts of Dow Jones, Nasdaq and Nikkei click:
http://kshitij.com/graphgallery/djiacandle.shtml
http://kshitij.com/graphgallery/nasdaqcandle.shtml
http://kshitij.com/graphgallery/nikkeicandle.shtml

Asians are mixed this morning, with Nikkei and Straits Times being the worst hit, both down over 1%. On the other hand New Zealand has been defiant and trading up 1.39%.

Sensex has managed a close above the 15,000 mark yesterday. However, it is bang on at its Resistance currently. It is to be seen if the positive momentum can break past this level or not. The chances are less of a break on the upside.
To see the chart click on:
http://kshitij.com/graphgallery/sensexcandle.shtml

COMMODITIES
The dip in Crude (to the low of $117.11) was seen after the government reported a jump in domestic inventories; oil is now down about $30 from its record high of $147.27 reached July 11. Crude can further come off to test the important Support at 115. A break below this is not expected in a jiffy. For now, if a rise beyond 120 is not seen; expect a further slide towards 115 over the week, with an interim Support at 116.69.

Gold closed below the Support level ($880.00) at $878.80 yesterday. However, a sharp rise since has pushed the metal past 880 once again. Currently it trades at 884.60, with a mixed bias that makes it difficult to analyze the immediate future.

CURRENCIES
Euro for now seems headed towards Support at 1.5350. A rally could be sold into with caution. Watch out for the ECB statement later in the day. To see the interest rate chart click on:
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/euecb.shtml

EUR-JPY has broken past the downward channel seen on the 4-hourly on the upside. For now as long as the (Resistance turned) Support at 168.50 holds, the bias is expected to remain positive targeting 169.70 once again.

Finally the Resistance at 108.40 gave way yesterday on USD-JPY and resulted in a sharp rally in the pair. However, as per expectation the rise faced some Resistance near 109.90-110, and has come off since then. Expect some consolidation here before further rise is possible.

The USD-CHF has faced Resistance at 1.0600-650 region after breaking past 1.0550 yesterday. For now a bull flag can be seen on the 4-hourly chart that could target 1.0625-650 over the day.

Cable has broken the Support at 1.95 and seems headed towards the important Support at 1.9450-00 in the day. Watch out for the BOE statement. The rates are not expected to change, however, the dovish statement could help in achieving our target. To see the chart click on:
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/ukboe.shtml

Aussie continues to be bearish and could slip further in the day. This sudden bearishness that has developed could wipe off another 200 pips from here. However, it remains to be seen if a bounce from here (as the pair looks oversold) could get us a better level to enter a trade from the short side.

DATA TODAY
11:00 GMT BOE Mtg
...Exp 5.00% ...Prev 5.00%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/ukboe.shtml

11:45 GMT E-15 ECB Announcement
...Exp 4.25% ...Prev 4.25%
http://www.kshitij.com/fundamentals/funcharts/euecb.shtml



DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

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