KSHITIJ.COM - Morning roundup of global Equity, Commodity and Currency markets

03-Feb-2012
0905 IST or 0335 GMT or 2335 EST

GOOD MORNING!

EQUITIES
WORLD
World MSCI increased to 1259 (+2.33pts), which is a significant Resistance on daily chart. A break above this resistance will open the doors for further rise to 1300.

Euro AREA
STOXX50, Euro Area benchmark stock index inched up to 2478 (+7.36pts) on Global clues. We need to watch the further movement as there is an important trend line resistance at 2500. A break above this may confirm the rally to continue.

USA
Dow came off yesterday to 12,705 (-0.087%). We see the index to move up further to test 12,750 with a Support at 12630. The weekly unemployment claims slipped to 367K for the week ended 28 Jan 2012 from previous week level at 379K. Note that the claims broke below 4week moving average (375,750)

ASIA
Nikkei and Shanghai are trading low at 8854 (-22pts) and 2303 (-8.9pts). Note that Nikkei is facing an important Resistance at 8880-90 and a break above this will confirm the further carry forward of the rally started at beginning of January 2012. Sensex closed high at 17,431 (+131pts) despite the SC judgment to cancel all the 2G telecom licenses allotted on Jan 2008. The judgment may be major setback to the investment intention the sector but address the long-term goal to control corruption. We expect some profit booking come today putting downside pressure on Sensex.

COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (96.53) has dropped below its Support at 97 and can now fall further towards 95 or even 92.50 in the coming days.

Gold (1759.10) is continuing to trade higher and is keeping up the chances of testing 1780-1800 on the upside.

Silver (34.20) has risen above 34 and can now test 35.50 on the upside which is a good Resistance level to be watched. A strong break above 35.50 can take it further up towards 37.

Copper (3.79) is ranged between 3.76-3.85 over the last couple of days with in its overall uptrend.

CURRENCIES
This week has seen sideways consolidation so far and this sideways range is expected to be retained until the important US NFP data release which is due today. All the Currecies are trading sideways except for the Cable (1.5813) and Aussie (1.0696) which has seen a strong rally against the dollar this week. Cable can test 1.5950-6000 on the upside and for the Aussie, 1.0735-50 will be an important Resistance region to be watched and a break above it would turn the bigger picture very bullish going forward for a target of 1.1900-2100.

The Euro (1.3136) is ranged between 1.3000-3250. Dollar-Yen is ranged between 76.00-40 after it broke below its important Support at 76.55. The Euro-Yen Cross (100.06) is ranged between 99.30-101.30. Dollar-Swiss (0.9176) is ranged between 0.9100-250.

In Asia, the Korean-Won is trading near 1119 and the Sing-Dollar is trading near 1.2467. Dollar-Rupee had closed lower yesterday at 49.1450/1550 and could remain pressured on the downside for a test of 48.85 while below its Resistance at 49.30.

INTEREST RATES
In Euro area, Italian and Spanish 10Y yields came off yesterday to 5.6% (-7bps) and 2.9% (-13bps) respectively against the German 10Y yields which remained stable at 1.85. The US 10Y yields remained at 1.83%.

In India, 10Y GOI yields slipped to 8.13% by 14bps from the day before level. We may not see the rise toward 8.50%. We expect it to test 8.00 % by next couple of weeks.

DATA TODAY
9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST EU Retail Sales
...Expected 0.4% ...Previous -0.8%

11:00 GMT or 16:30 IST CA Labour Force
...Expected 23.5K ...Previous 17.5K

13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST Jan US NFP
...Expected 156K ...Previous 200K

13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST Jan US Unemployment Rate
...Expected 8.5% ...Previous 8.5%

DATA YESTERDAY
Dec Australia Trade Balance
...Actual A$ 1.71 Bln ...Previous A$ 1.34 Bln

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

WARNING !!
Visitors should be aware that Foreign Exchange transactions and trading are or can be subject to laws, rules and regulations of the country in which the entity undertaking the transactions is situated. It is incumbent upon the Visitors to keep themselves informed and abreast of the Laws they are (or would be expected to be) subject to and governed by, and act in accordance thereto.

info@kshitij.com
http://www.kshitij.com
Copyright © Kshitij Consultancy Services
Suite 2G, 2nd Floor, Tower C
Hastings Court
96, Garden Reach Road
Kolkata - 700 023
INDIA
00-91-33-24892010/ 24892012
Location Map

Site created by
Manaskriti Software Solutions