Indian Rupee Rate (INR) Indian Rupee Forecast

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Morning Briefing
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Daily forecasts on global Stocks, Commodity, Forex and Interest Rates markets

31-Jul-2015
0905 IST or 0335 GMT or 2335 EST

GOOD MORNING!

STOCKS
The Dow (17745.98, -0.03%) saw an intra-day low of 17640.9 but rose back to close higher. Near term looks bullish towards 17800-17900 and maybe higher.

Dax, (11257.15, +0.40%) also dipped slightly but does not look very bullish. It is testing 13-week and 21-week MA as support and may possibly move higher steadily. But while below 11140, scope of falling towards 11000 cannot be negated.

Nikkei (20525.29, +0.01%) is almost stable but may rise towards 20800 in the near term. Shanghai (3658.94, -1.26%) saw a dip yesterday and may test lower levels of 3550-3500 before again moving up. Overall medium term looks bullish.

Nifty (8421.80, +0.56%) rose to levels above 4500 yesterday but came off later during the session. Note that 8500 is an immediate resistance and unless a break above this is seen we cannot be bullish on Nifty. We may expect a fall from resistance near 8500.

COMMODITIES
Commodities fall again after a false rise yesterday but may soon recover as they are testing long term weekly supports. The immediate supports seem to hold but do not look strong enough to push prices sharply up. In that case prices may be trapped within near term resistance-support levels. Need to keep an eye.

Gold (1084.92) has fallen back to and looks bearish in the near term. A break below 1080-1076 could be vulnerable to a further fall towards 1050.Note that it is testing weekly support near current levels and need to bounce back from here. See 3rd chart: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/goldcandle.shtml#candle


Silver (14.676) has also fallen and may possible test support near 14.25 before rising afresh. Below 14.25, the broad 13.75-14.00 may act as support zone. May see a bounce in the next couple of weeks. See chart: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/silverma.shtml#ma


Copper (2.3775) also came down to re-test support near 2.35. Need to see if it bounces from here to levels of 2.40-2.45 and higher. See charts:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/copperma.shtml#ma

Brent (53.14) and WTI (48.17) have come down too. WTI is trading above the long term support mentioned earlier but note that the support does not seem to have a strong impact on the price. We may possibly see some choppy movement in the near term.

FOREX
Currencies are also overall weak. Though near term supports are seen on the charts, no sign of recovery is visible just now.

Euro (1.0940) saw an intra-day low of 1.0892 yesterday but came back to close higher. Near term looks weak and we may expect a re-test of 1.09-1.08 levels before rising again. See charts: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/eurcandle.shtml#candle

Aussie (0.7299) has also dipped slightly. But while above 0.725, we may see some sideways movement. See 3rd chart:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/audcandle.shtml#candle

Pound (1.5608) is fluctuating within the 1.57-1.5557 region and may trade within these levels today. See chart: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/gbpma.shtml#ma

Dollar-Rupee (64.04) rose back to 64 as support near 63.87 held well. It may trade above 64 today also to see a weekly close at higher levels.

INTEREST RATES
The US yields are trading lower today. The 5Yr (1.63%), 10Yr (2.25%) and the 30Yr (2.93%) are all down from 1.64%, 2.30% and 3.00% respectively. See charts: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/usdsin00.shtml#sin00

The German yields are also down. The 5Yr (0.043%), 10Yr (0.655%) and 30Yr (1.349%) are all trading lower from 0.058%, 0.691% and 1.398% respectively.

The UK yields have also dipped. The 5Yr (1.50%), 10Yr (1.96%) and 20Yr (2.48%) are down from 1.51%, 1.98% and 2.51% respectively. See charts: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/gbpsin00.shtml#sin00

DATA TODAY
23:30 GMT or 5:00 IST JP Unemp
...Expected 3.3 % ...Previous 3.30 % ...Actual 3.4 %

9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST EU Unemp
...Expected 11.0 % ...Previous 11.1 %

12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST CA GDP
...Expected 0.0 % ...Previous -0.1 %

23:05 GMT or 4:35 IST UK Cons Conf
...Expected 5 ...Previous 7


DATA YESTERDAY:-
-------------------------

US GDP
...Expected 2.6 % ...Previous -0.17 % ...Actual 2.3 %





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