Kshitij Consultancy Services
Morning Briefing Daily forecasts on global Stocks, Commodity, Forex and Interest Rates markets
20 Sep 17. 0901 IST or 0331 GMT or 2331 EST
GOOD MORNING!
STOCKS

Cautious on Nifty as it is trading below important resistances. Dow, Nikkei and Dax look bullish. Shanghai could be in the initial phase of a corrective fall.

Dow (22370.80, +0.18%) is in an uptrend and is inching up slowly. AS mentioned earlier we may see a test of 22500-22600 levels in the coming sessions.

Dax (12561.79, +0.02%) paused a bit yesterday but looks bullish for the near term targeting 12650-12680 initially.

Nikkei (20298.80, -0.00%) is heading towards 20500 in the coming sessions. For the medium term 21000 is a very crucial resistance (Note 20800-20700 are interim resistances below 21000) and could push the index back towards 20100 or lower in the longer run.

Shanghai (3353.82, -0.09%) is trading flat and has been stable this week below 3370. There is a decent chance that the index would come off towards 3325 or even lower in the coming sessions.

Nifty (10147.55, -0.05%) has been slowly inching up breaking immediate resistances on its way to 10200-10300 soon. Note 10200 seem to be a decent resistance on the 3-day line charts. Need to be cautious for any signs of a corrective dip from near current levels.

COMMODITIES

Brent (55.39) and WTI (50.23) are stable and may come off from current levels in the next few sessions. While below 56.00 and 50.81, there could be an initial sideways consolidation followed by a dip towards 54.50 and 49 respectively.

Gold (1312.28) bounced back from levels near 1303 itself (we had expected a test of 1296) and could move up towards 1320. While above 1300, some bullish possibilities remain towards 1330 else a break below 1300-1296 could make the price vulnerable to a sharp fall.

Silver (17.30) is up from levels of 17.18 and could now move up towards 17.50.

Copper (2.98) is holding above 2.95 support and could move up towards 3.00-3.05 in the coming sessions. Near term could be sideways to bullish.

FOREX

Some hours to go for the FOMC. The Dollar Index (91.7260) trades lower, the Euro (1.2009) and Aussie (0.8013) trade higher, retaining their uptrends.

Should the Euro (1.2009) manage to see 1.2035-50, one of the two possibilities mentioned a couple of days ago, it may also try to move further up towards 1.2115+. The Aussie (0.8013) has done well for itself by bouncing from the mentioned Support at 0.7960 yesterday and again looks like it could test 0.8050.

Continued rise in the Euro-Yen (133.92). Although it seems to be breaking into new bullish territory, we note that the current level is the 61.8% retracement of the fall from 149.51 (Dec '14) to 109.42 (Jun '16). Just a point to be noted. Dollar-Yen (111.52) has been stable since yesterday, conceding to the overall Dollar weakness. Chances of further rise to 113.00-50 exist. Confirmation needed in form of rise past 111.90.

The Pound (1.3523) dipped to 1.3468, but has moved back up a bit. It looks consolidative between 1.3450-3600 for a couple of days now.

A bit of a dip in the Dollar-Yuan (USDCNY = 6.568) today after a near-test of 6.60 yesterday. Some more upside may be possible, but need to watch. The Rupee weakened to 65.33 yesterday along with weakness in some to the BRIC currencies. Need to see if there is follow-through buying towards 64.40-50 or not.

INTEREST RATES

FOMC tonight. US yields have been rising since 11-Sep, but have Resistances overhead. The 30Yr (2.81%) has Resistance at the current level while the 10Yr (2.24%) and 5Yr (1.83%) have Resistances near 2.25-26% and 1.85-86% respectively.

There are chances that the US 30-10 (0.57%) and 30-5 (0.97%) Yr Spreads might move up again from near current levels. This suggests chances that the US 10Yr and 5Yr could dip soon. This further suggests chances of a dovish FOMC tonight.

The German-US 10Yr Spread (-1.78%) trades marginally lower than Monday's -1.76%. Need to see if this moves up after the FOMC or not. It might.

DATA TODAY

14:00 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
...Expected 5460 K ...Previous 5440 K

18:00 23:30 US FOMC Meeting
...Expected <1.25 % ...Previous <1.25 %

DATA YESTERDAY:-
--------------
US Housing Starts
...Expected 1180 K ...Previous 1190 K ...Actual 1180 K

US Current Account Balance
...Expected -113 $ Bln ...Previous -114 $ Bln ...Actual -123 $ Bln




DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

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