Kshitij Consultancy Services
Morning Briefing Daily forecasts on global Stocks, Commodity, Forex and Interest Rates markets
23 Jun 17. 0856 IST or 0326 GMT or 2326 EST
GOOD MORNING!
STOCKS

Dow (21397.29, -0.06%) is in a downward corrective phase and could move down towards 21300-21240 in the near term. Trend looks bearish for the coming week.

Dax (12794.00, +0.15%) is holding well above 12700 support levels and while that holds, we may look for an immediate rise towards 12900 which would not be negated unless we see a break below 12700 just now.

Shanghai (3148.16, +0.03%) is trading within the broad 3120-3200 channel and could move up towards 3180 in the coming sessions. Immediate resistance is visible near 3200 which if holds, could push off the index back to 3120 again next week. We need to see a confirmed break on either side to get some more clarity on the near term movement within an overall longetrm uptrend.

Nikkei (20107.76, -0.01%) is stable and in a consolidation mode which could possibly extend towards 20000 on the downside. Thereafter a rise back to levels near 20200-20300 is possible over the next week.

Nifty (9630.00, -0.04%) came off sharply after testing 9700 yesterday but while above 9600, there is scope of re-testing 9700 and breaking above in the near term, rallying towards 9800 over the next couple of weeks. The 9600-9700 region could possibly hold for another 4-5 sessions before we see a sharp upmove. Medium term looks bullish.

COMMODITIES

Muted price action has been seen as Gold (1252) is hovering around its key support of 1242-45. If 1245 holds, a quick bounce towards 1262 and 1295 can’t be ruled out. Otherwise it remains in a slow corrective move which may take it to the support of 1242 and 1232 respectively. We will remain bullish on gold while it is trading above 1230 levels. Silver (16.58) is also trading above its support of 16.50 and could be ranged within 16.50-16.90 regions.

Copper (2.59) is trading within the narrow range of 2.55-2.67. Only above 2.67, higher resistances of 2.84 can come into consideration. We wait for further directional clarity on a break on either side of 2.55 and 2.67 levels.

Brent (45.30) and WTI (42.85) were manage to close above their recent lows of 44.40 and 42, keeping the upside possibilities open. Both Brent and WTI are highly oversold in near term time frame and we will be assured of strength of Brent and WTI only when a firm and sustainable closing above 46.50 and 44.50 are made by both of them.

FOREX


A quiet day for all the majors. It remains to be seen if the US new home sales data can introduce any volatility.

Little change seen in Dollar Index (97.49) as it hovers around the support zone of 97.45-35 waiting for the next leg up for 98.10-40. Weakness may creep in only below 97.35 but that scenario has a slightly lesser probability till now.

Euro (1.1158) remains almost flat too just like the Dollar. Repeat - the immediate upside may be limited to 1.1200 levels with the major support unchanged at 1.1100-1.1090.

Dollar-Yen (111.35) has bounced back from 110.90, comfortably higher than our support zone of 110.60-50 but the upside momentum is still missing. Higher targets remain unchanged at 112-113.

Pound (1.2700) is trading almost in the middle of the range of 1.2540-1.2820 with no immediate directional clue and the sideways trading may continue for a few more sessions. Interim resistance comes at 1.2730 which has to be overcome if 1.2800-20 is to be tested.

Aussie (0.7545) remains almost unchanged with the trend still down. It may decline further to the major support of 0.7490 before a short covering bounce can be expected.

Regarding Dollar-Rupee (64.59), the resistance of 64.70-75 is expected to hold. he area around 64.40 has turned out to be a good support for the last 3 sessions. This smaller range of 64.40-75 may see a breakout next week, determining the near term path.

INTEREST RATES

The US 10-5Yr (0.39%) is stable at levels seen yesterday. There could be some chances that the yield differential could start moving up from current levels in the coming sessions without testing 0.375% on the downside.

The US yields are also stable and could move up slightly in the near term. The near term yields have risen while the longer end yields have been falling over the last 1-2 weeks, flattening the yield-curve.

The Japanese yields have started to come off from immediate resistances and looks bearish for the near term. the 10Yr (0.06%) could come off towards 0.039% by mid-next week.

The German yields are all mixed. The 30Yr (1.04%) is moving down sharply while the 10Yr (0.25%) looks stable. On the other hand the 5Yr (-0.38%) has been rising gradually and could test -0.30% in the near term.

DATA TODAY


12:30 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
...Previous 1.6 %

14:00 19:30 US New Home Sales
...Expected599 K ...Previous 569 K


DATA YESTERDAY:-
---------------

No major data release yesterday.



DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

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