76% of our Dollar-Rupee forecasts are reliable

This is based on statistical analysis of a 17+ years track record since 2006. Read on below for an overview of our performance.

More "Good" than "Bad"

We rate our monthly Dollar-Rupee forecasts as either Good [+1] or OK [0] or Bad [-1] based on a combination of the above two criteria and that is how we say our forecasts have a reliability of 76%.

Kshitij USDINR forecasts beat market consensus

Over the years, our forecasts have been closer to the actual market movement than the market consensus. This is why our Clients who have "Been There/ Done That" find our forecasts to be more reliable.

How much of 12-month movement in USDINR was captured by Kshitij.com

Can a Dollar-Rupee forecast tell you, reliably, where the market will be 12 months from today? Isn’t that something you need? Our forecasts have been right on the ball on this for every month since 2018, as seen in the chart above.

Our Forecast Reliability has increased over time

Our reliability has improved over the years from 35% in 2006 and 40% in 2008 to 76% now.

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Our forecasts are evaluated under 2 criteria

1. Directional Accuracy

How many times do we get the direction right? Earlier, during 2006-2008 we were correct only 36% of the times. Since 2008, however, we are right on average 60% of the time.

2. Numerical Accuracy

This measures how far, numerically, our forecasts are from the actual rates that prevail later.

Our average error is down from 14.25% earlier to 2.04% now. Peak error has also come down drastically from 12.22% to an average of 4.13%.

We have been providing Reliability for the last 27 years and have been ranked #1 worldwide by Bloomberg for our Rupee forecasts in Sep 2018 and #4 for Euro Forecasts in March 2018. We have been ranked recently #4 by Bloomberg for Dec’20 USDINR Forecasts. You may read more about that here.

Ranked #2 worldwide by Bloomberg for USDINR Forecast

Ranked #5 worldwide by Bloomberg for EURUSD Forecast

WHAT'S NEW?

Apr '24 Quarterly Forecast

Our April '24 Quarterly Dollar-Rupee Forecast is now available. To order a PAID copy, please click here and take a trial of our service.

WHAT'S NEW?

Apr '24 EURUSD Report

Euro could not move above 1.0981 in March and has been trading well below 1.10 post the surprise rate cut by SNB last month. Will Euro continue to trade below 1.10? Or can it remain stable for a while and show a sharp breakout above 1.10? ...Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Apr'24 Crude Oil Report

After breaking above the earlier range of $70-85, Brent has moved up higher. Will it sustain and break above $90? Or will it fall back to $80/70? Find detailed analysis with 12-month numerical projections for Brent in the April 24 Monthly Crude report. ... Read More

WHAT'S NEW?

Apr '24 US Treasury Report

In our last report (23-Feb-24, US10Yr @ 4.25%), we had laid out our near term view (that the ongoing rise in the US10Yr may/ may not extend up to 4.5%), our medium term view (that the US10Yr can still fall to 3.5%) and our long term view of a rise towards 5.0% and higher going into 2025. .... Read More

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