Kshitij Consultancy Services
72% of our Dollar-Rupee forecasts are reliable
We are possibly, the only forex advisor to publish a forecast track record.

72% of our Dollar-Rupee forecasts are reliable

This is based on statistical analysis of a 10-year track record since 2006. Read on below for an overview of our performance.

Our Forecast Reliability has increased over time

Kshitij Forecast Reliability Chart
Our reliability has improved over the years from 35% in 2006 and 40% in 2008 to 72% now.

Our forecasts are evaluated under 2 criteria

1. Directional Accuracy

Directional Accuracy Chart

How many times do we get the direction right? Earlier, during 2006-2008 we were correct only 36% of the times. Since 2008, however, we are right on average 62% of the time.

2. Numerical Accuracy

Numerical Accuracy Chart

This measures how far, numerically, our forecasts are from the actual rates that prevail later.

Our average error is down from 65% earlier to 3.5% now. Peak error is also down drastically from 12% to 6%.

More "Good" than "Bad"

72% forecast Chart
We rate our monthly Dollar-Rupee forecasts as either Good [+1] or OK [0] or Bad [-1] based on a combination of the above two criteria and that is how we say our forecasts have a reliability of 72%.
We have been providing Reliability for the last 20 years and were ranked #1 worldwide by Bloomberg for our Rupee forecasts in Dec 2015. You may read more about that here.
21 years of Reliability
Ranked #1 worldwide by Bloomberg

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