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7-Mar-08 |
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BENCHMARK
USD-INR RATES……. by KSHITIJ.COM |
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| Rate on that day |
40.5300 |
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| Wtd Avg Benchmark Rate |
40.2898 |
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Obsrvd % Error |
Possible |
Possible |
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Possible |
Possible |
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Avg of 3 Projected |
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Amount |
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Mth |
Benchmark |
frm earlier readings |
High |
Low |
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Max High |
Max Low |
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Highs |
Lows |
| 1 MONTH |
Benchmark = |
40.3307 |
1,000,000 |
1 |
8-Apr-08 |
40.33 |
0.87% |
40.68 |
39.98 |
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42.46 |
38.20 |
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41.33 |
39.33 |
| Mkt Hist |
Mkt Forecast |
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2 |
7-May-08 |
40.25 |
2.20% |
41.13 |
39.36 |
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42.37 |
38.12 |
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41.50 |
38.96 |
| 20-day MA |
Highest |
Preferred |
Lowest |
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3 |
9-Jun-08 |
40.25 |
2.28% |
41.16 |
39.33 |
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42.37 |
38.12 |
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41.51 |
38.95 |
| 39.9574 |
40.85 |
40.20 |
39.80 |
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4 |
7-Jul-08 |
40.53 |
4.15% |
42.22 |
38.85 |
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42.67 |
38.39 |
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42.06 |
38.82 |
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5 |
7-Aug-08 |
40.53 |
4.21% |
42.24 |
38.83 |
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42.67 |
38.39 |
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42.07 |
38.81 |
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6 |
8-Sep-08 |
40.53 |
4.33% |
42.29 |
38.78 |
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42.67 |
38.39 |
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42.09 |
38.79 |
| 2-3 MONTHS |
Benchmark = |
40.2462 |
2,000,000 |
7 |
7-Oct-08 |
40.18 |
6.71% |
42.87 |
37.48 |
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42.30 |
38.05 |
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42.46 |
38.01 |
| Mkt Hist |
Mkt Forecast |
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8 |
7-Nov-08 |
40.18 |
7.04% |
43.00 |
37.35 |
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42.30 |
38.05 |
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42.50 |
37.97 |
| 2-mth MA |
Highest |
Preferred |
Lowest |
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9 |
8-Dec-08 |
40.18 |
7.49% |
43.18 |
37.17 |
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42.30 |
38.05 |
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42.56 |
37.91 |
| 39.8121 |
41.00 |
40.05 |
39.40 |
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10 |
7-Jan-09 |
40.18 |
8.00% |
43.39 |
36.96 |
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42.30 |
38.05 |
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42.63 |
37.84 |
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11 |
10-Feb-09 |
40.18 |
8.27% |
43.50 |
36.85 |
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42.30 |
38.05 |
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42.66 |
37.80 |
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12 |
9-Mar-09 |
40.18 |
7.82% |
43.32 |
37.03 |
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42.30 |
38.05 |
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42.60 |
37.86 |
| 4-6 MONTHS |
Benchmark = |
40.5343 |
3,000,000 |
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Avg Error |
5.28% |
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| Mkt Hist |
Mkt Forecast |
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| 6-Mth MA |
Highest |
Preferred |
Lowest |
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| 39.7431 |
41.30 |
40.50 |
39.20 |
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| 7-12 MONTHS |
Benchmark = |
40.1752 |
6,000,000 |
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| Mkt Hist |
Mkt Forecast |
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| 12-Mth MA |
Highest |
Preferred |
Lowest |
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| 40.5521 |
42.20 |
40.70 |
38.50 |
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| NOTES: |
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| The Benchmark
Rates are Weighted Averages |
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| of the relevent
Moving Average, the Best, Mid |
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| and Worst Case
scenarios. Greater weights are |
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| assigned to the Mid
Rate, and to the Best/ Worst |
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| Rate depending
on the situation. |
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The Benchmark is NOT a forecast. It encapsulates all possibilities. |
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| The rationale
is to combine Market History |
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Based on that, we also figure out possible
deviations. |
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| (through the
Moving Averages) and the |
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These then help us plan the Hedge Ratio and
Strategy |
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| Market
Forecasts (Best, Worst, Mid) to |
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To put it another way, if you achieve the
Benchmark Rate for your exposures |
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| arrive at a
Benchmark, so as to cover all |
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you are achieving a mixture of all the possible
rates envisaged. |
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| possibilities,
leaving the least room for bias |
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