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Sample of Kshitij Dynamic Benchmark

                                           
          BENCHMARK USD-INR RATES……. by KSHITIJ.COM          
                   
                                           
    Rates set on Rate on that day Wtd Avg Benchmark Rate                            
    2-Apr-14 59.9050 61.7536                            
     
 
                                   
                                           
                                           
                                         
    Mkt Hist Our Forecast   SN Mth Mth Ending Benchmark Obsrvd % Error frm earlier readings Possible values Avg of 3 Projected    
      High Low Max High Max Low Highs Lows    
    1 MONTH 21-day MA Highest Preferred Lowest Benchmark   1 Apr 5-May-14 59.79 1.38% 60.62 58.96 63.30 56.28 61.91 57.75    
    Apr 60.7689 61.80 60.27 58.00 59.79   2 May 4-Jun-14 60.67 3.00% 62.49 58.85 64.24 57.11 62.99 58.49    
                  3 Jun 4-Jul-14 60.43 3.44% 62.51 58.35 63.98 56.88 62.80 58.24    
                  4 July 4-Aug-14 60.76 4.77% 63.66 57.86 64.33 57.19 63.16 58.35    
    Mkt Hist Our Forecast   5 Aug 4-Sep-14 61.36 4.92% 64.38 58.34 64.96 57.75 63.88 58.86    
    2-3 MONTHS 5-Wk and 8-Wk MA Highest Preferred Lowest Benchmark   6 Sep 7-Oct-14 61.50 5.19% 64.69 58.31 65.11 57.89 64.10 59.03    
    May 60.5470 62.25 61.08 59.50 60.67   7 Oct 5-Nov-14 61.89 7.72% 66.67 57.11 65.52 58.25 65.23 58.79    
    Jun 61.0694 61.90 60.57 59.50 60.43   8 Nov 4-Dec-14 62.90 7.86% 67.85 57.96 66.60 59.21 66.32 59.81    
                  9 Dec 5-Jan-15 63.38 8.00% 68.45 58.31 67.10 59.65 66.85 60.25    
    Mkt Hist Our Forecast   10 Jan 4-Feb-15 63.38 8.09% 68.51 58.26 67.11 59.66 66.81 60.39    
    4-6 MONTHS 5-Mth MA Highest Preferred Lowest Benchmark   11 Feb 4-Mar-14 63.03 8.12% 68.15 57.91 66.73 59.33 66.38 60.01    
    Jul 61.9489 61.50 60.83 60.00 60.76   12 Mar 6-Apr-15 61.95 7.99% 66.90 57.00 65.59 58.31 65.26 58.97    
    Aug 61.9489 62.30 61.57 60.50 61.36         Avg Error 5.88%                
    Sep 61.9489 62.50 61.57 60.90 61.50                            
                                     
    Mkt Hist Our Forecast                            
    7-12 MONTHS 13-Mth MA Highest Preferred Lowest Benchmark                            
    Oct 59.8832 63.50 62.50 61.00 61.89                            
    Nov 59.8832 64.50 63.58 62.25 62.90                            
    Dec 59.8832 65.00 64.10 62.80 63.38                            
    Jan 59.8832 64.80 63.88 63.25 63.38                            
    Feb 59.8832 64.25 63.55 62.80 63.03                            
    Mar 59.8832 63.30 62.30 61.60 61.95                            
                                           
                                           
    Note: The Benchmark Rates are Weighted Averages of the relevent Moving Average, the Best, Mid and Worst Case scenarios.                      
    Greater weights are assigned to the Mid Rate, and to the Best/ Worst Rate depending on the situation.                            
                                           
    The rationale is to combine Market History (through the Moving Averages) and the Market Forecasts (Best, Worst, Mid) to                      
    arrive at a Benchmark, so as to cover all possibilities, leaving the least room for bias                        
                                           
    The Benchmark is NOT a forecast. It encapsulates all possibilities. Based on that, we also figure out possible deviations. These then help us plan the Hedge Ratio and Strategy To put it another way, if you achieve the Benchmark Rate for your exposures      
    you are achieving a mixture of all the possible rates envisaged.                                
                                           
                                           


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