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FX Thoughts for the Day

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FX Thoughts - USD-JPY - Error Correction - 27-Feb-2013
1902 IST or 1332 GMT or 0832 EST

YenUSD-JPY @ 91.64...Error Correction
Holding
USD 10K Short at 91.98, SL 92.30, TP 91.15 (Up from 91.05)

We have incorrectly mentioned the SL as 92.35 in the Evening I. We apologize for the error.



FX Thoughts - Evening II - 27-Feb-2013
Evening Edition
1830 IST or 1300 GMT or 0800 EST
SwissUSD-CHF @ 0.9296/99...can rise from 0.9270-75
R: 0.9340-50 / 0.9385
S: 0.9290 / 0.9240

Dollar-Has come off slightly and we see this as a profit booking rally and the medium term trend remain up. It can dip to 0.9275 from where it can bounce back again. On the upside it can target 0.9250-85 in the coming sessions. We are not looking to trade the pair currently.
CableGBP-USD @ 1.5152/55...Mixed, bigger trend bearish
R: 1.5250 / 1.5300-20
S: 1.5100-75 / 1.5000

Cable on the dip has found support near 1.5075. The trend is down but the failure of follow up selling is creating a doubt that can further covering be seen? It can rise towards 1.5220 on short covering. On the other hand a break below 1.5080-75 will push it lower towards 1.4875. We are inclined for a move lower towards 1.4875. But still we need to wait and watch.



AussieAUD-USD @ 1.0194/97...Weak
R: 1.0230 / 1.0275 / 1.0375
S:1.0150 / 1.0030

Aussie after breaking its support of 1.0230 level has dipped further and seems to be targeting 1.0150. Further lower levels of 1.0030 also cannot be ruled out. On the higher side it has some resistance in the 1.0230 levels and then at 1.0275 levels. We expect it remain weak and to move down towards 1.0150 after which a bounce can be seen.



Happy Trading!



FX Thoughts - Eur-Yen Error Correction - 27-Feb-2013
1800 IST or 1230 GMT or 0730 EST

EuroYenEUR-JPY @ 120.11/14...Error Correction
The levels mentioned in the Short trade taken in the Morning-I were incorrect. The entry was at 119.90 and not at 118.90.
We apologize for the error.



FX Thoughts - Evening I -27-Feb-2013
1710 IST or 1140 GMT or 0640 EST

EuroEUR-USD @ 1.3116/19...Can dip again from 1.3165
R: 1.3160 / 1.3250 / 1.3300
S: 1.3070 / 1.3010

The Euro has traded flat through the day with out giving any significant move in either direction. Short term charts had resistance near 1.3100 which has been crossed, now a rally towards 1.3150-65 can be seen. The bigger trend remains bearish and it can turn down from 1.3165 level to head lower towards 1.3000 and then towards 1.2875.


YenUSD-JPY @ 91.69/72...Weak
R: 92.30 / 92.75 / 93.40
S: 91.50 / 91.00 /

Dollar-Yen has traded weak as expected, it does have some support in the 91.50 and 91.00 level but it can be broken to see lower levels of 90-89 in the coming sessions. The trend seems to have turned down and we see the pair testing lower levels in the coming sessions. 92.00-30 is a good resistance region which is likely to hold the pair from gaining any further momentum.

We have been wrongly mentioning the short taken at 91.98 as 91.99. We apologize for the error.

Holding
USD 10K short at 91.98, SL 92.35, TP 91.05



EuroYenEUR-JPY @ 120.25/28...Can rise before it falls
R: 121.00 / 121.75 / 1223
S:120-119.75 / 115-114.75

We were expecting the cross to weaken but it has not broken its 119.75 support and has bounced back from there. It can now rise towards 121.75 before falling. The trend has turned down and we can see it dipping The trend though has turned bearish and we would be looking to see the pair at higher levels. Once the down trend begins then we can see lower levels of 115.00. Currently we would like to be on the sidelines.




FX Thoughts - Tighten SL on Short -27-Feb-2013
1710 IST or 1140 GMT or 0640 EST

YenUSD-JPY @ 91.74/77... Tighten SL on Short
Holding
USD 10K short at 91.98, SL 92.30 (Down from 92.35), TP 91.05


EuroYenEUR-JPY @ 120.03/06...Exit Trade
Exit Trade (At the Time of writing)
Exit (SL) at current levels the EUR 10K Short entered at 118.90



FX Thoughts - Morning II -27-Feb-2013
1120 IST or 0550 GMT or 0050 EST

YenUSD-JPY @ 91.74/77... Tighten SL on Short
Holding
USD 10K short at 91.99, SL 92.35 (Down from 92.40), TP 91.05


SwissUSD-CHF @ 0.9322/25...Likely to rise further
R: 0.9340-50 / 0.9385
S: 0.9290 / 0.9240

Has held 0.9290 support mentioned yesterday. While this support holds a further rise towards 0.9380 can be seen. Dollar seems to be strengthening further also as indicated by the Dollar-Index (81.88) which can rise further towards 82.80. The outlook remains positive on the pair for a further rise towards.


CableGBP-USD @ 1.5104/07...Bearish
R: 1.5130-40 / 1.5265 /
S: 1.5085 / 1.5000 / 1.4950

Cable continues to remain weak as it has turned down from 1.52. Currently trading near 1.5100 levels and threatening to break it for a move towards further lower levels. This break if seen will push it lower towards 1.4865 in the coming days. On the rise it has resistance near 1.5265 levels which can limit its upside. The outlook remains bearish for a fall towards 1.4865 in the coming days/weeks. Immediate resistance is seen in the 1.5130-40 on the hourly charts.
AussieAUD-USD @ 1.0218/21...Break below 1.0200 likely
R: 1.0250 / 1.0300 / 1.0350-75
S: 1.0200 / 1.0150

Aussie dipped to 1.0200 from where it has bounced back but looks weak to break 1.0200 once it turns down from 1.0250 levels. This current bounce is not likely to sustain and is likely to find sellers near 1.0250 if at all it rises to 1.0250. Overall trend looks weak for a dip towards 1.0130 in the coming sessions.



Happy Trading!


FX Thoughts - Morning I-27-Feb-2013
Morning Edition
1043 IST or 0513 GMT or 0013 EST

EuroEUR-USD @ 1.3069/72...Weak
R: 1.3160 / 1.3250 / 1.3300
S: 1.3070 / 1.3010

Euro has traded flat in the 1.3125-3000 range since yesterday. It is currently trading above its 1.3000-2980 support but the down trend seems to be strong and a down move towards 1.2875 can be seen on the break of 1.3000-2980 support. But it has already fallen quite a lot and it can stay flat for some time before moving lower. Bounce is likely to face resistance near 1.3150 levels.



YenUSD-JPY @ 91.91/93...Can dip now
R: 92.00 / 92.30
S: 91.60-50 /

Dollar-Yen has broken its 94.50-92 range on the down side yesterday. Chances of seeing a dip towards 91.00 and 89.30 levels seem more likely now. 92.00-25 is likely to act as a good resistance where selling pressure can be seen. A bounce to 92.30 can be used to take short positions in the pair with a stop above 92.40.

Holding
USD 10K Short at 91.99, SL 92.40, TP 91.05 (Up from 90.25)


EuroYenEUR-JPY @ 118.90/93..Weak
R: 120.50 / 121.20
S: 120.00

The cross has weakened from 123 levels and currently is at the support of 120.00 (trend line on the four hour). A break will push it lower towards 115.00 in the coming days. On the rise it can face resistance near 120.50 and 121.20 levels from where it can turn down if a rise is seen.

Market Trade (At the time of writing)
Sell EUR 10K at current levels, SL 120.60, TP Open



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DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.


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