Welcome to FX Thoughts for the Day, a forex forecasting and trade recommendation service that treats Traders with the respect they deserve. We provide twice daily forex forecasts trade recomendations for US Dollar, Euro, Yen, Swiss Franc and Sterling Pound.
R: 1.0590-0610 / 1.0656-76 / 1.0705 S: 1.0506 / 1.0483-62 / 1.0428 Dollar-Swiss has started coming off again after rallying to 1.0590 during the day. A test of Support at 1.0535 (trend Support on the 4-hour Candles) is likely. If that breaks, a further fall towards 1.0480 and possibly even 1.0462 (projected Max Low for the Day) could be seen.
GBP-USD @ 1.9580/84...Can rise towards 1.9690 ---------------------------------------------
R: 1.9616 / 1.9652 / 1.9685-9700 S: 1.9545 / 1.9500-75 / 1.9420-15 The Pound hs been finding Support at 1.9500 through the day today. While that holds (it is likely), a rise towards 1.9690 could be seen.
AUD-USD @ 0.9420/24...Can rise to 0.9460-9500 ---------------------------------------------
R: 0.9462 / 09500 S: 0.9409 / 0.9382 / 0.9348-23 The Aussie has bounced back after dipping to 0.9348 in the morning. A further rise towards 0.9460 and 0.9490 is likely.
Happy Trading!
FX Thoughts - Evening I - 08-May-2008 1809 IST or 1239 GMT or 0839 EST
R: 1.5375 / 1.5425-50 / 1.5485 S: 1.5320 / 1.5280 / 1.5211 / 1.5170 The Euro had dipped to a low near 1.5280, then bounced to 1.5375 till before the ECB decision to leave rates unchanged. From there, the Euro has again come off a little from there. All ears will be on the Press Conference by the ECB later on.
Technically, there is room for a decline towards 1.5210-5170. The immediate Resistance to keep an eye on will be 1.5375.
USD-JPY @ 104.35/38...Watch immediate Resistance at 104.50 ----------------------------------------------------------
R: 104.46-56 / 104.90 S: 103.94 / 103.47 Dollar-Yen had seen a sharp fall to 103.67, just above an important Support at 103.47 on the Daily chart. Watch Resistance at 104.50 now. If and while this holds, a dip back towards 104.00-103.90 may be seen. If a rise past 104.50 occurs, you could see a further rise towards 104.90.
R: 160.43 / 160.70 / 161.10-30 S: 159.76 / 159.05 The Cross fell to a low near 159.05 but has bounced back strongly from there. It has an important Resistances at 160.40 and 160.70. While these holds, a dip towards 159.58, possibly lower, could be seen. An eventual fall towards 157.40-10 is also quite possible. But, one would have to weather intra-day/ intra-week volatility.
In case of a rise past 160.40, look for a test of 160.70 and possibly 161.10-30.
Holding: EUR 10K Short at 160.30, SL 160.95(from none earlier), TP 157.60 EUR 10K Short at 159.73, SL 160.60, TP 157.60
FX Thoughts - Morning II - 08-May-2008 1315 IST or 0745 GMT or 0345 EST
MAX HIGHS and MAX LOWS ---------------------- To take a look at the projected Max Highs and Lows in multiple time frames for the currencies we cover, please click on http://www.kshitij.com/fx/aag.shtml
USD-CHF @ 1.0550/54...Watch Resistance at 1.0630 -------------------------------------------------
R: 1.0628 / 1.0666 S: 1.0520 / 1.0495 The rise in USD-CHF to 1.0628 was unexpected, especially since the USD-JPY fell to 103.96. Still, the Resistance on the Weekly charts at 1.0619 remains intact as of now. Our Short at 1.0505 turned out to be ill-times and was stopped out at 1.0594. The market is currently trading lower than that at 1.0570.
In the medium term, while the market remains below the Resistance at 1.0630, we cannot rule out a corrective fall towards 1.0405 and lower. In case OF A Week Close above 1.0656 (projected Max High for the Week) look for a further rise towards 1.0750.
GBP-USD @ 1.9524/27...Watch Support at 1.9475 ----------------------------------------------
R: 1.9585 / 1.9639 / 1.9694 S: 1.9475 / 1.9420 / 1.9343 Yesterday, we had bet that the Pound might remain above the trendline on the Weekly Candles coming up from 2006, which is visible at http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/gbpcandle.shtml
Unfortunately, the bet did not pay off and our Long at 1.9558 was stopped out at 1.9528. The Cable dipped thereafter to a low near 1.9503. It has a downward-channel-Support near 1.9475 on the Daily Candles that is visible on the first chart at http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/gbpcandle.shtml
This Support could hold ahead of the BOE meeting today. In case of a Day/ Week Close below 1.95, the overall uptrend since 2006 may stand broken and a fall towards the Jan-08 Low near 1.9337 may follow.
On the upside, a rise past 1.9615 may signal a recovery towards 1.97.
R: 0.9434 / 0.9472 S: 0.9348 / 0.9323 / 0.9297 The Aussie had plunged to 0.9348 in early Tokyo trade, coming off sharply from yesterday's high at 0.9512. Some more days of sideways consolidation between 0.9300-9550 is the theme now. No immediate trades. May look to buy some on a dip to 0.9340. The projected Max Low for the day is 0.9317.
Happy Trading!
FX Thoughts - Morning I - 08-May-2008 Morning Edition 1049 IST or 0519 GMT or 0119 EST
MAX HIGHS and MAX LOWS ---------------------- To take a look at the projected Max Highs and Lows in multiple time frames for the currencies we cover, please click on http://www.kshitij.com/fx/aag.shtml
EUR-USD @ 1.5297/5300...Can fall further --------------------------------------
R: 1.5367 / 1.5400 / 1.5437 S: 1.5283-70-50 / 1.5226 / 1.5178 / 1.5139 There's been a sharp fall in the Euro today, carrying on from yesteray. Good Resistance is now available at 1.5400-35 and a further decline towards 1.5140 is possible. Some interim Support may be found at 1.5226.
USD-JPY @ 104.41/44...Can fall towards 103.45 ----------------------------------------------
R: 104.51-71-93 / 105.28 / 105.60-70 S: 104.02 / 103.60-45 / 103.23 Dollar-Yen has fallen sharply to 104.35 today after the Resistance at 105.70 held again yesterday. Intra-day Resistance now seen at 104.51-93. While the market trades below this, a further fall towards 103.44, the projected Max Low for the day, could be seen.
EUR-JPY @ 159.73/76...Selling some again ----------------------------------------
R: 160.32 / 161.33 / 161.83 S: 159.60 / 158.96 / 158.26-05 Bit of a regret on the Cross. Had we stuck to our original Short at 162.75 and the original Stop Loss at 163.26, we would have seen profit at 161.60. Anyway, with further weakness possible in both EUR-USD and USD-JPY, the Cross could well decline further towards 157.10. As such, we don't mind selling some again.
Market Trade (at time of writing): Sell EUR 10K at current level, SL 160.60, TP 157.60
Limit Sell Order: Sell EUR 10K at 160.30, no immediate SL, TP 157.60
DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not
guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and
it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
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