Kshitij Consultancy Services
Economic Calendar


US 10Yr T-Bond Yield: Could 2017 see the start of a long rise?

The US 10Yr T-Bond yields rose for 35 years from 2.03% in 1946 to 14.59% in 1981. The fall from there to the 2016 low of 1.50% also took 35 years. This time-symmetry suggests chances of a long-term bottom in 2016.

Also, the magnitude of the fall in yield from the1981 top to 1987 low (A) is almost equal to the fall from 1987 high (B) to the 2016 low (C), further increasing the chances of a bottom in 2016. If so, the US 10Yr Yield could rise past 4% in the next two years.
MAY - 2017
DATE TIME ECONOMIC DATA UNIT EXPECTATIONS PREV ACTUAL
19-May-17 12:30 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y % - 1.7 1.6 1.6
23-May-17 8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Climate   - 113.1 113 114.6
  8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Situations   - 121.2 121.4 123.2
  8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Expectations   - 105.8 105.2 106.5
  14:00 19:30 US New Home Sales K - 611 621 569
24-May-17 14:00 19:30 US Existing Home Sales K - 5680 5710 -
  14:00 19:30 BOC Meeting % - 0.50 0.50 -
25-May-17 8:30 14:00 UK GDP % - 0.30 0.28 -
26-May-17 12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders % - - 0.69 -
  12:30 18:00 US GDP % - - 0.69 -
30-May-17 23:30 5:00 JP Unemp % - - 2.8 -
  9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate   - - 109.6 -
  12:30 18:00 US Personal Income % - - 0.24 -
  12:30 18:00 US PCE Price Index M/M % - - 0.04 -
  13:00 18:30 US Case Schiller % - - 5.9 -
  14:00 19:30 US Cons Conf   - - 120.3 -
31-May-17 23:01 4:31 UK Cons Conf   - - -7 -
  12:30 18:00 CA GDP % - - 0.00 -